Executive Summary

Spain is a booming economy with its population to be around 46.4 million and $25864.72 GDP per capita. In 2008 Spain entered a state of Great Recession but since 2013 Spain has shown signs of recovering from recession. The recovery can be mainly attributed to increased exports. Spain ranks 7^th worldwide as the most suitable country to invest in the investor confidence went down slightly during the recession but even then the country received foreign investments.

Spain seems to have some strength as well as weaknesses. Despite great improvements after the 2008 recessions the political situation in the country is very uncertain. The Business Environment Indicator which ranks 82 countries ranks Spain as 25^th. And Country Risk measured by Coface which gives Spain an A4 rating. These indicators highlight the weaknesses and points out that expanding into Spain at the moment might not be a good strategy. The company should wait and see whether a clear government emerges in December 2016, and what the government’s new policies are.

Objectives

1. To explore opportunities for Global Business Group for business expansion in Spain 
2. To comprehend macro environment of Spain and make valuable deductions to evaluate key success factors required. 
3. Fully formulate a threat assessment that can assist in Global Business Group Investment decisions. 
4. To rational concluded and make a go no go decision.

Advantages of Expanding in Spain

Manufacturing

• Spain is also investing heavily in machine tools which are the cornerstone of any industrial effort. This means that acquiring raw material and equipment will be easier and cheaper. 
• Supportive Policy towards free enterprise and competition
• Policy towards foreign investment
• Foreign trade and exchange controls
• Spain has a well-established industry for manufacturing of heavy machinery and equipment, the Cadiz zone offers tax cuts too

Financial

• The company can benefit from un-certainty to charge increased mark up. 
• Spain is currently political unstable and has been without a proper government since December 2015
• The popularity of temporary workers has reduced firing costs and employers have more bargaining power as compared to workers

Consumer

• Spain spends about $19.2 billion on Research and Development and comes 16^th among top spenders on research.
• The Spanish population is technologically savvy with internet usage rates of 65% the company can benefit for tech services. 

Disadvantages

Manufacturing

• Another important indicator is the Country Risk measured by Coface which gives Spain an A4 rating. This rating implies that the economic and financial system shows weaknesses, there is political tension, there are shortcomings in the business climate and the probability of company default is reasonable.
•  Even though Spain has a very educated population, but declining birth rates and an ageing population means challenges in availability of workforce for our company.
• Technological innovation but there might be budget cuts, due to constant pressure from EU to reduce budget deficit. 
• No Clear Policy 
• Reduced orders as a result of political uncertainty. 
• The economic growth is also expected to go down in 2017 to 2.3%.

Banking and Financial 

• Expanding the banking and financial service also does not make sense at the moment as a huge chunk of the country’s population is unemployed.
• Moreover, the ongoing interest rates and the borrowing costs are very low. 
• After the 2008 crisis the financial industry suffered a lot and had to be bailed out in 2012. Even now Spanish Banks get structural funding from EU. 

Consumer Market 

• The consumer products market has the weakest prospects. 
• High unemployment meaning Spanish consumers have lower purchasing power.
• VAT on goods and services in Spain is extremely high (21%).

Conclusion

Global Business Group Should not expand to any market in Spain based on the PESTEL analysis outcome.

Introduction

Spain, situated in the southwest region of Europe, is a decentralized country with 17 autonomous regions (Euro Challenge, 2012) and two autonomous cities namely Ceuta and Melilla, each region has a set of its own institutional statutes (Business Culture, 2012). According to i Queralt (2012) Spain’s economy started improving after the Civil War (1936-39); in 1986 it became a part of the European Union which resulted in further economic growth and soon enough it became the 5^th largest economy in EU.

Unfortunately, this economic boom was heavily dependent on the real estate bubble, which burst in 2008, and Spain entered a state of Great Recession (i Queralt, 2012). As a result, economic growth fell, thousands of people lost their jobs, unemployment rates were as high as 27%, youth unemployment was at 50%, and the banking industry was destabilized (Business Culture, 2012).  In 2012 banks were granted a bailout of 100 billion Euros which relatively stabilized the banking sector (Lane, 2012).    

Spain’s population is estimated to be around 46.4 million with a GDP per capita of $25864.72 (World Economic Forum, 2016). The major industrial regions include Madrid, Valladolid, Catalonia, Valencia and Asturias; Barcelona houses around 85 companies and is considered the most important industrial zone (Harrison & Corkill, 2016). The major industrial sectors of Spain are automotive industry, machinery, textiles and food (Harrison & Corkill, 2016).  

Spain has always been an attractive country for foreign investors, it ranks 7^th worldwide as the most suitable country to invest in, the investor confidence went down slightly during the recession but even then the country received foreign investments (Data Monitor, 2010). It’s appeal to customers is due to its similarity with Latin American culture, a thriving tourism industry, and good infrastructural support (Keating & Loughlin, 2013). Since 2013 Spain has shown signs of recovering from recession, the global competitive index 15-16 ranked Spain 33 out of 140 countries with an average score of 4.6/7 (World Economic Forum, 2016). 

This recovery can be attributed mainly to increased exports (Harrison & Corkill, 2016). However the unemployment rates still seem to be sky high at 20% (Economics, 2013).  Even though there are signs of improvement, but Spain’s political horizon seems clouded with uncertainty due to lack of a clear parliamentary majority, this can have a major impact on the business environment (Vives, 2015).

This analysis will further elaborate the political, economic, social and technological situation in Spain to help the business decide whether expansion in Spain is advisable at the moment.

PEST Analysis of Spain

Political

Political stability:  Spain is a constitutional monarchy, with Prime minister as the head of the government and the monarch as the head of the state (Prelec & Brown, 2016). According to Pridham (2016) There are multiple political parties at work but the major ones are PSOE (Centre left wing), PP (Centre right- right wing), Podemos (Left Wing), Ciudadanos (Centre left to centre right). Since the democratic era started PSOE and PP have been alternatively in power most of the time (Lago-Peñas, 2015)

Currently Spain is facing serious problems with its political system; it has been without a proper government since December 2015, because the parliament could not choose a prime minister and was therefore dissolved. Elections were held again and a new parliament was formed in June 2016 but to no avail (Dellepiane & Hardiman, 2012). Furthermore, according to Dellepiane and Hardiman (2012) there has been an ongoing separatist movement in one of the industrial hubs of the country i.e. Catalonia, the new leadership in the region is intent upon getting independence from Spain. 

There have been attempts by political actors to form a coalition government to break out of the deadlock, but no clear majority has emerged till now (Data Monitor, 2010). Moreover there have been increased instances of corruption by the higher ups, which has decreased the trust in government (Lago-Peñas, 2015). Such uncertainty and instability in the political arena pose risks to the potential investors or companies that plan on entering the Spanish market. Unless the political parties resolve their differences and there is a proper government in the center this instability will affect the economic progress of the country and might result in GDP contraction (Dellepiane & Hardiman, 2012).

Employment laws:   Spain’s employment rate declined sharply during the economic crisis, even today when the economy is still recovering the employment has not increased considerably (Congregado, Golpe, & Carmona, 2010). The minimum wage in Spain is around €648.60 to €655.20, for home workers the hourly rate is €5.13 whereas for temporary workers the minimum wage is €31.03 per day (Bentolila, Cahuc, Dolado, & Le Barbanchon, 2012). Spain has a two track labor market which has classified workers into castes, and increased the number of temporary contracts; due to this companies have little incentive to hire permanent employees (Congregado et al., 2010). 

As per a news report in 2015, 92% of the 15.4 million labor contracts signed were temporary (Congregado et al., 2010). As a result of the 2012 labor reforms, employers have more bargaining power as compared to workers (Bentolila et al., 2012). Due to reduced firing costs and increased popularity of temporary contracts the companies tend to fire their employees at the slightest hint of recession (Bentolila et al., 2012). All these things result in decreased level of spending on on-job training of employees (Congregado et al., 2010). This is a slacking indicator for the services provided by Global Business Group as consultancy services will not be in demand.

To encourage entrepreneurship, the government created a permanent contract for entrepreneurs; this contract allows the entrepreneurial entity to hire a worker on one-year probation. This entails that they will not have to give out severance pay and will receive subsidies (Bentolila et al., 2012). A downside of this is increased youth unemployment and lack of trained young professionals. Moreover, those who have the skills seek more lucrative and stable opportunities outside the country meaning Global Business Group would find it challenging to get skilled and trained labor force.

Tax Policies: Spain taxes companies at a standard rate of 25%, whereas investment companies & portfolio investment funds are taxed at 1%. Spain has signed a number of treaties with different countries to avoid double taxation; nonresident companies only pay taxes on Spanish source income whereas resident companies are taxed on worldwide income. Capital gain taxes have also been reduced by 1% since 2015 and follow a progressive tax system.  In order to encourage R&D investments Spain has introduced some tax credits; for R&D 25%-42% of expenses, for improvement in technological aspects of existing products 12% costs (Delgado, 2012). Furthermore, industrial development banks and companies are also incentivized through special tax treatment (Delgado, 2012).

Some other corporate taxes include a hydrocarbon tax which was introduced in 2016. Capital duty, payroll tax, real property tax, stamp duty and transfer tax are some other taxes levied on corporation. There is a three level VAT in Spain; 21% on goods & services, 10% on medical & Pharmaceuticals, 4% on food & newspapers (Bentolila et al., 2012).

However, there are four free trade zones in Spain which provide incentives like reduced tax rate of 4%, reduced VAT of 7%, no transfer tax and no stamp duty. According to Baldwin and Jaimovich (2012) These four regions are:

1. Ceuta and Melilla free zone mostly used by textile industry
2. Canary Islands used by construction industry
3. Cadiz used by manufacturing industry
4. Vigo used by automotive industry

Spain’s tax burden is moderate to high, but provides good incentive to companies specially those involved in R&D and technological innovation. The Global Business Group diversification strategies would be more focused on financial market and consumer based products since this is their core hence R&D does provide a strong area for investment however, strategic fit is lacking hence less recommended.

Economic

Spain is the 4^th largest economy in the Eurozone, in 2008 it suffered a massive setback to its economy due the bust of the housing bubble (Data Monitor, 2010). However since 2013 it has been on the road to recovery (World Economic Forum, 2016). In 2016 GDP growth was 0.8% in three quarters which makes the yearly GDP growth to be slightly higher than 3% (Chorafas, 2015). 

According to Castells (2011) This has been an impressive comeback for Spin despite the political unrest it faces. The automobile exports have been a major contributing factor towards the improvement of economy (35% of GDP). Agriculture contributes 2.5% towards GDP, IT and telecommunication industry have potential growth prospects. The major players in the manufacturing industry are textiles, naval machinery, iron and steel and industrial food processing (Quaglia & Royo, 2015). According to some reports, if it weren’t for the political instability the GDP growth would’ve touched 3.4% and if the political situation continues then Spain might face some GDP contraction in 2017 (DeGeorge, 2016). According to Euro Challenge (2012) Spain’s budget deficit for 2015 was 5.1% of GDP which was higher than the EU demands of 3%. To further bring down the deficit there will have to be budget cuts which can have a negative impact on economic growth. Inflation rate in august 2016 has been recorded as -0.1%, a rise of 0.5 points since the previous month, this shows that Spain might be headed towards positive inflation soon (Kaput, 2016). 

Unemployment rates have come down from a high of 27% to 20% whereas youth unemployment still has the sky-high figure of 45.8%; this is the highest in the region after Greece (Chorafas, 2015). These are expected to go down to 17.9% by 2017 (Chorafas, 2015). 

DeGeorge (2016) explains as a result of increased wages, a fall in unemployment, reduced oil prices and negative interest rates the Spanish consumers have more money on their hands to spend; this in turn has improved domestic consumption. However, due to the ongoing political certainty the consumer confidence is declining, since December 2015 the consumer confidence has gone down by 14.8 points (Data Monitor, 2010). Consumers are delaying their major buying decisions to see whether new government will increase taxes, people are pulling back investments, and the manufacturers have reported decreased orders as a result of this political uncertainty (DeGeorge, 2016). 

Spain’s economy has both negative and positive aspects. Even though it is has shown admirable success in emerging from the recession but the factors that helped it do so might fade in 2017 or their affect will wear off. Moreover the ongoing complex political situation is also putting a dampening effect on the economy, so for expanding businesses Spain might seem a little risky.

Social-Cultural

In terms of demography, the Spanish population is ageing while birth rates have been declining and consequently less number of people are entering the workforce. This particular factor can pose considerable challenge to Global Business Group, neither they can offer financial services to aging population nor consumer product demand is high for the segment. Entering a specialized industry poses a threat of sustainable workforce.  According to Boeri, Garibaldi, and Moen (2016) Retirement age has also increased and two years have been added to pension eligibility hence can result on more economic result than human resource productivity. Consequently, all this has meant a shrinking workforce. This can be perceived to be negative news for our company which also sells consumer products. A slowing down population would result in lower aggregate demand and hence less demand for our company’s consumer products.  

Work culture was previously relaxed with people often taking a nap in the middle of the afternoon known as Siesta however recently work conditions are stricter and tighter because of increased competition.  Tse, Esposito, and Soufani (2016) Now trend is moving towards more time at the desk and very short time away from it on break. However still work conditions are somewhat relaxed as deadlines are not set in stone and one can be late once in a while. This knowledge would be important to keep in mind when devising sales strategies in selling our companies products.

In Spain, as explained by Business Culture (2012) there’s more focus on traditional means of communication such as face to face meetings. Tse et al. (2016) informs that personal interaction and relationships are held in high stead. Therefore, if our business is to have a chance at succeeding in the Spanish market then much attention has to be paid to training staff and employees in being amiable and developing long lasting relationships with clients.  

Another feature of the Spanish social environment is that the number of temporary worker’ contracts is exceeding the number of permanent contracts. Due to this trend there are a few workers in Spain which have received on job training (Vázquez-Rowe, Villanueva-Rey, Moreira, & Feijoo, 2016). This shall affect HR policies of our company in its Spanish operations. If the company plans on hiring permanent employees it roughly mean that more resources will have to be allocated to long term benefits associated with permanent contracts such as investment in employee Pension Funds. These additional costs will have to be taken into account.

In terms of education, the Spanish population is highly educated with the majority possessing advance college degrees. However, Economics (2013) has highlighted that unemployment within the youth segment of population remains high. Even experienced individuals find themselves out of work for long durations. Due to fewer opportunities the younger skilled force looks for better options outside the country. For heavy industrial equipment manufacture, there might be a lack of young skilled labor. For financial and banking sectors of our business, this would be a bad news as out of work people are unlikely to turn towards the financial services our business conglomerate offers. 

With recession comes discontentment. The Spanish society is increasingly being divided along communal lines. The eastern region of Catalonia is at loggerheads with the Central Madrid region. Austerity plans to quell effects of recession have meant cuts in education and health sectors. Burchardt, Griera, and García-Romeral (2015) In light of the social friction, two regions namely Basque and Catalonia (which includes the industrial city of Barcelona) have called for full provincial autonomy and may even break off in the near future.

For our business conglomerate, this means that it is important to understand the distinct local culture of the regions we wish to operate in. For instance, if we are using football athletes to brand our consumer product lines then the same sporting faces cannot be used in a blanket manner over both the Madrid and Catalonia regions. Players of Real Madrid will draw rebuke in Barcelona and vice versa. A one strategy fits all is inadvisable when it comes to Spain. Also themes of unity in marketing campaigns might prove to be a hit as well as this would position our companies brand as socially responsible and patriotic. Playing with ethnic and communal tensions would be like playing with fire and is a no go area for our company and its associated brands. The Spanish are friendly people and must be treated as such (Burchardt et al., 2015).

One more important aspect is that while the younger people understand English somewhat, the older generation is totally clueless. Therefore, all our signage and branding would have to be worked through with professional translators. As sometimes the literal translation does not fully carry the meaning and in fact what might be acceptable in other Western countries might prove to be offensive for local people. Catalonia has its own language called Catalan and therefore instead of using Spanish there, using Catalan would be far more efficacious. López‐Duarte, Vidal‐Suárez, and González‐Díaz (2015) Much care has to be taken in this regard to appreciate the sensitivities of the local people.

Technological

Spain spends about $19.2 billion on Research and Development and comes 16^th among top spenders on research. However, Huergo, Trenado, and Ubierna (2015) inform recent cuts in research expenditure due to the recession have negatively affected the budget for Science and Technology. Spain has pledged to increase its budget for research purposes to at least 2% of the country’s GDP. How successful Spain is in achieving this target will determine how its technological sector will develop. 

The Spanish population is technologically savvy with internet usage rates of 65%.  The primary telecom company Telefonica covers and connects the whole of Spain. It has well developed Information Technology infrastructure Data Monitor (2010) and connectivity and this bodes well for the financial and banking services our business would offer. There would be no need as such to start from scratch as the infrastructure already remains in place.  Furthermore, ports and railways are fully developed therefore making movement of heavy industrial machinery very easy across the country. The famous Renfe trains make journey times of large distances such as Madrid and Seville into just two hours.           

The Government has been trying to reverse the decline in technology sector by increasing R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP. Legislation is also being made freer and policies have become more liberal in nature. This means that while the past might not have been that friendly the future holds much promise for technology intensive companies (Castells, 2011). Lesser legislation will mean that there are smaller compliance costs for manufacture of industrial machinery and consumer goods.

Recent technological innovations in renewable energy have made Spain popular throughout the world (Data Monitor, 2010). The promotion of renewable energy act pushed Spain in the direction of Green Energy. Wind farms, solar energy have made a sizeable contribution to the Spanish energy market and renewable energy equipment is now also being exported to other countries in large quantities. The South of Spain particularly boasts Solar Thermal units such as Gemasolar which can produce up to 19.9 megawatt of Electricity. In Spain, therefore emphasis is on environment friendly ways of generating energy. Clean renewable energy would hence be abundantly available for consumer products manufacturing and heavy machinery industrial goods manufacture. 

Similarly, like wind energy Spain is also investing heavily in machine tools which are the cornerstone of any industrial effort.  From energy to home appliances, machine tools are needed to support the production of many consumer goods. Some of these machine tool manufacturers cater specifically to their clients which mean that for the purposes of Global Business Group it would be easy to obtain custom made machine tools (Welfens, Irawan, & Perret, 2016). This will help in the manufacture of our consumer products lines. There is also emphasis on investing in emerging technologies. These are investments in the biotechnology firms which will develop its health sciences area. 

However, a drawback in technology sector can be gauged through the number of patents from Spain. In this regard, Spain lags far behind its European counterparts such as France and Germany. The number of patents is on the rise but is still far below its European counterparts. This is a sign of low level of innovation in the country. The Spain Innovation Strategy or STI has been developed to counter the decline and promote innovation in the major sectors of the economy. 

Discussion and Interpretation

In conducting PESTEL analysis it has been analyzed that according to  Data Monitor (2010) Spain has always been an attractive country for foreign investors. It positive characteristics are very attractive even after the recession and having no government.  Global Business Group is a service-oriented consumer base company. The products company offer are trainings, financials and invests in various industries. According to Team (2013) the businesses in order to expand to the foreign market requires to understand the external market environment in which they are going to operate. 

The above detailed PESTLE analysis define the dynamics of the Spain. The Global Business Group are investors and can be positively influenced the by the overall economic growth and a strong comeback from the recession. This shows the economy has resilience and can spring back from disaster. However, being investor attractive in the present circumstances is not enough. The advantages of expanding to the Spain have to be gauged against the opportunity cost that Global Business Group will be forgoing. Furthermore, the Global business group cannot take decision simply if the market is expanding. It has to take into consideration the risk of expanding and fully understanding the dynamic to formulate its risk thresholds and take calculated risks. 

The Manufacturing industry is a strong point of Spain, the financial sector is not so attractive since most of the entrepreneurial activity has halted and the unemployment rate is really high. Consumer market with the rising unemployment rate becomes less attractive as buying power has significantly reduced. 

The PESTLE analysis shows the indicators that political unrest makes the legitimacy of the business a big question mark and policies of the Government presents uncertainty since they can be change in lieu of change in political parties. For investors to move in Spain requires a stable government. 

The taxation policies for the consumer good makes the investment option more challenging. The situation in Spain can dramatically change since the unstable government is a critical threat. The recommendations further discuss and build on the analysis performed using PESTEL framework. The recommended option is to wait and further monitor the situation of Spain as presently the uncontrollable risk is significantly high.

Recommendations

Keeping in mind the above analysis Spain seems to have some strength as well as weaknesses. There have been great improvements on the economic front and the domestic demand has also improved, but the political situation in the country is very uncertain and has already started affecting the economy slightly negatively. The Business Environment Indicator which ranks ranks 82 countries (based on the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labor market and infrastructure), ranks Spain as 25^th (Harrison & Corkill, 2016).

Another important indicator is the Country Risk measured by Coface which gives Spain an A4 rating. This rating implies that the economic and financial system shows weaknesses, there is political tension, there are shortcomings in the business climate and the probability of company default is reasonable (Keating & Loughlin, 2013). Even though Spain has a very educated population, but declining birth rates and an ageing population means challenges in availability of workforce for our company. On the technological front Spain is trying to improve by incentivizing R&D and technological innovation but there might be budget cuts, due to constant pressure from EU to reduce budget deficit. These indicators show that expanding into Spain at the moment might not be a good strategy. The company should wait and see whether a clear government emerges in December 2016, and what the government’s new policies are.

Spain has a well-established industry for manufacturing of heavy machinery and equipment, the Cadiz zone offers tax cuts too. But recently, manufacturers have seen a reduction in orders as a result of political uncertainty. The economic growth is also expected to go down in 2017 to 2.3%. Moreover, it’s not clear what new policies or reforms a new government might impose, and if the political impasse continues the business climate will get worse. Hence at the moment it is not recommended for The GB Group to expand its heavy machinery sector into Spain.

Expanding the banking and financial service also does not make sense at the moment as a huge chunk of the country’s population is unemployed. Moreover, the ongoing interest rates and the borrowing costs are very low. After the 2008 crisis the financial industry suffered a lot and had to be bailed out in 2012. Even now Spanish Banks get structural funding from EU. As mentioned above the young and skilled people are moving out of Spain to find better job opportunities. 

The consumer products market has the weakest prospects. Even though the consumer demand has gotten slightly better over the years, the unemployment rate has not gone down much, meaning Spanish consumers have lower purchasing power. Furthermore, the VAT on goods and services in Spain is extremely high (21%). In order to expand into the Spanish market the products would have to be modified. As older people do not understand English the branding and marketing of all products would have to be in Spanish. Hence in my opinion it is not advisable to expand our consumer products division into Spain either.

Conclusion

This PEST Analysis of Spain has highlighted both its strengths and weaknesses. Currently, political situation is unstable which has begun to affect the economic situation of Spain aswell. Spanish population is ageing while birth rates have been declining and consequently it means a shrinking workforce and less demand for consumer products. The economic growth is also expected to go down in 2017 to 2.3%. Due to increasing budget deficits there has been cuts in research expenditure. The weak prospects indicate Spain as an unfavorable country to expand our consumer products division. 

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